Sunday, April 30, 2006

Sunday Diamond Picks

sunday selections forum

Goal is +2

A Credit Nation

Last year in US, credit card companies spent $6 billion dollars to promote their credit cards services, a 16% increase from the previous year. Each month, an average adult received 6 unsolicited credit card application forms, and 0.3% of people do apply for them.
Heard from cbsnews, April 30th, 2006.

Lions draft Blog read

As always, The Wayne Fontes Experience is a great read and would like to direct your attention to the site dedicated to local sports conversation:
As I was killing time before the upcoming gut wrencher that the Red Wings game will most likely be, I ran into an interesting article. Page 2 ranked the "100 Worst Draft Picks Ever" today. The great State of Michigan was well represented, as you might think. I thought I'd touch base on those who were drafted by or played with, at one time or another, teams from the mitten.

Continued: This list is not complete without Reggie Rogers

Sunday Bases Discussion and Picks

Picks for Today record: 41-25-2 (62%) ROI: 22.11%
**2Unit** Plays: 9-4-1
***3Unit*** Plays: 3-2
Units gained/lost: +23.53
Yesterday: 5-2 (+2.84)
Progress
Daily Excel Sheet (Team/weekly/monthly breakdowns)
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
April 24-May 1: 21-13-0 (+8.88 units; ROI: 14.62%)
======================
Basics: 1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.
======================

Pretty light day yesterday, not risking more than 1 unit on any single play. Lost one play on the run-line (cardinals) and another on the NYM/ATL total. Won some easy ones on Tigers -1, NYY -1.5, and Milwaukee ML and a couple more on Seattle ML and CWS ML. My goal was 2-3 units for the day and I hit 2.8 units. The goal for Sunday will be 2 units.

Been having success on the weekends so far. Saturdays (2): +12.65 and Sundays (1): +2.70 If I can get another 2 units for a Sunday, I'll be pleased.

Just beginning to look at the schedule and lineups for tomorrow. I'll be sharing things as they come to me as well.

Below are some trends for the following game. I try to glance at trends and try to find certain ones that maybe applicable. In the case here, the trends really aren't very convincing one way or the other. I like that CWS are 9-0 as dogs in their last 9. Garland is 6-0 after the Sox score less than 2 runs in their previous games. I like that the Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.

White Sox vs Angels
----------------------
• White Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-0 in Garland's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-1 in Garland's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• White Sox are 5-2 in Garland's last 7 starts.
• White Sox are 4-0 in Garland's last 4 starts as an underdog.
• White Sox are 1-4 in Garland's last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 day games.
• Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.
• Angels are 0-3 in their last 3 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 9-4 in Santana's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Angels are 6-1 in Santana's last 7 starts as a home favorite.

• White Sox are 3-0 in Garland's last 3 road starts with Reliford behind home plate.
• Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Reliford behind home plate.

Seems like a tough matchup to take the side. I've had the CWS the last 2 games. Not sure if I should just avoid this one all together. Under in the total looks pretty convincing, but have not had great success on judging the strength of my leans on totals so far.

Twinkies @ Tigers
-------------------------
In my opinion, this is a game to avoid.

I have had Detroit on the -1 the first two games. WHOA! were those some blow outs. Minnesota lost two games in a row by more than 10 runs. At times, the team looked like they lacked fundamentals. They had errors that were laughable. Detroit is jacking the ball out of the park like crazy... so if with the tasty offer the books are giving, I don't think it is wise to take Minnesota. I think they get swept here. This game will be closer (obviously) but the only bet I would make on this game would be Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +125. I guess I shouldn't say only (I would take ML if someone made me pick a ML on the game--but wouldn't put more than 1 unit on it), but I think the RL is the best bet on this game is.

Fade Rogers with a 2.42 ERA in his last 3? When Lohse has 'improved' his ERA to 6.46 in the last 3 games, compared to his 8.55 overall..... I want to press that I don't think it is smart to fade the Tigers tomorrow.

I have a feeling that the Tigers are really going to want to get this home sweep, after that long successful road trip this will feel like a gem. I also think that they really aren't going to have an awful time sweeping. Sometimes it is just tough to bet on a team 3 days in a row

Waiting and seeing if the line comes down (did last night and I saved slightly)... & then I'll reconsider in the morning

Toronto @ Yankees
-------------------------
I know who I like in this matchup and I'm pretty sure I'll be taking NYY -1 -143 or NYY -1.5 +102. Yankees have yet to win a 1-run game, so the value in taking the Yankees has been in taking the RL....

Mussina has been solid this season. A WHIP of under 1 in his last 3 and under a 3 ERA, it seems to make sense to take the Yankees against the lefty Chacin. He is 4-0 and that to me is impressive with his 5+ ERA... Yankees are batting over .300 against lefties and had a good day at the dish yesterday... May carry over and they could deliver Chacin his first loss.

Games I won't be touching unless I get strong reason too....

--------------------------------------------------
Philly and Pittsburgh --- 2 bad teams, coin flipper

Seattle and Baltimore ---hit two games on the series and both team are pretty inconsistent. Couldn't tell you how this Sunday game is going to play out.

Boston and Tampa--- Would like Boston but not at that price. Schilling has been sick, but less good the last 3 (still very good)-- paying the price on the road in a rubber match doesn't sound like an exciting bet. If anything maybe, Tampa +1.5 +105 for 1 unit.

Considerations for discussion and the morning...
----------
Houston/Nati Over 9 or 9.5

Cubs/Milwaukee Over -- especially if it is like 8 or 8.5

NY METS--- streaking right now?

Cleveland? ...

Picks will be finalized in the morning...

Saturday, April 29, 2006

Saturday Bases

Picks for Today record: 36-23-2 (61%) ROI: 21.01%
**2Unit** Plays: 9-4-1
***3Unit*** Plays: 3-2
Units gained/lost: +20.69
Yesterday: 5-2 (+5.72) progress
Daily Excel Sheet
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
======================
How this works:
1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.
======================
5 EARLY GAMES
1. Seattle Mariners -118 *1UNIT*
Felix Hernandez over Bruce Chen sounds good. &
I'm not thinking the vig will get cheaper.
• 2. Detroit Tigers -1 -105 *1UNIT*
Waited overnight on this one and I got a slightly better prices (ML dropped about 6 cents and the -1 runline 4 cents. I'm gonna put a unit down on Verlander and the Tigers to win another one against Minnesota. The bet is only 1 unit (yesterday it was 3 units), but I think their chances of winning are about the same but I don't feel the need to push the issue in game 2.
• 3. New York Yankees -1.5 -128 *1UNIT*
I have decided to add this early game. I think Yankees win today and they haven't won a game by just a single run all season long. I'd rather lose on the chance of a 1 run game then pay close to -255 for the ML.
• 4. Milwaukee Brewers -109 *1UNIT*
Pretty much I'm thinking Cubs aren't gonna score many runs against the lefty... Rusch lets up quite a few. Rubber match on Sunday...
• 5. St Louis Cardinals -1.5 -116 *1UNIT*
Don't see any reason why the Cardinals don't snap back and have a great game under the start of Carpenter. ML I think is a given but you are really paying a risky price, so I'm taking the runline.

2 LATE GAMES
•6. Mets/Braves OVER 8 +104 *1UNIT*
• 7. Chicago White Sox -116 *1UNIT*
Going to bite on Contreras and the Sox for two nights in a row.

Saturday goal is to net +2 to +3 units. Won't be looking to push too much, as last Saturday was 6-1 +9.81 units (the 22nd of April).

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Got that Bobb Deep





If you haven't heard this tape yet, pay attention. My boy Adro knows the kid who flipped this shit, mr. dj swindle, and damn.. the beats on here are cold as hell. If you're a fan of bob marley and hip hop, its a must hear. nuff talkin.. heres to listening.






bobb_deep_SoMuchTrouble.m4a

Won't you help me find my puppy?

Starting now and probably til the end of summer.. I'll be throwing tracks at you, whoever reads, to listen to and add to your summer 06' mixtape. It'll be both new shizz I come across and some old classic jams. It'll be everything from hip hop to funk to indie rock. Just listen to the songs and embrace the warm fuzzy feeling it gives you inside.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Introducing "The Malboro performance meter"

I witnessed the best at bat I've seen from a Tiger player in recent memory during today's thrilling win against the A's. Brandon Inge's 15 pitch at bat, resulting in a walk to keep a come from behind rally alive was a thing of beauty. Even more impressive was that Inge was behind 0-2 in the count, then battled for 7 minutes, fouling off 9 pitches. Not nearly as dramatic as Dave Bergman's legendary nationally televised 19 pitch at bat against Toronto in 1984, as that ended with Bergman hitting a 3 run home run, but it had it's similarities.

It was so good, that Jim Leyland had something to say about the length of Inge's plate appearance...

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland joked that Inge stood in there so long he had enough time to smoke more than one cigarette.

“One-and-a-half Marlboros,” Leyland said. “That was a tremendous at-bat. He showed great discipline up there. When people see that, they see the way it can be done.”


A one-and-a-half-marlboro at bat. I don't think Leyland could have given Inge any higher praise that that...

Wings win in Double OT

DETROIT (AP) -- The Detroit Red Wings survived a scare because Kirk Maltby has been listening to his coaches.

Maltby scored his second goal of the night 2:39 into double overtime to lift Detroit to a 3-2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1 of their first-round series Friday.

He ended the 3½-hour game with a long shot from outside the right circle that was deflected past goaltender Dwayne Roloson by the stick of Edmonton teammate Rem Murray.

"Our coaching staff has been harping on us to get the puck on the net because you never know what can happen," Maltby said. "My shot just clipped his stick, and more times than not, those are the kind of goals that win in OT."

Maltby made it 2-all with 6:17 left in regulation when he scored off a rebound on a goal that stood after a video review. He had just five goals this season after scoring 14 in each of the previous two.

"You need guys like Malts to win at playoff time -- he competes," coach Mike Babcock said after coaching Detroit for the first time in the postseason.

Roloson made 54 saves.

"Unfortunately, they got a lucky bounce at the end of the game," Roloson said. "You can't fault our guys at all."

Manny Legace, who made just 23 saves for the Red Wings, said he felt a sense of relief.

"Especially when it goes to double overtime and the other goalie stands on his head," Legace said. "We got lucky."

Game 2 of the best-of-seven Western Conference series is Sunday in Detroit.

The Oilers had a chance to steal the game against the Stanley Cup favorites, but Edmonton coach Craig MacTavish said his team has to get over the disappointment quickly.

"You can't carry that baggage long in postseason because that really debilitates you ability to bounce back," MacTavish said.

Three of the four regular-season meetings went to overtime with Detroit winning the lone game decided in regulation. The Red Wings won once in overtime, and the Oilers won a game in overtime and another in a shootout.

The Red Wings entered the playoffs with the best record in the NHL for the third time in four seasons, but they are coming off two straight early-postseason exits.

Detroit got off to a good start, with Robert Lang scoring on the power play for a 1-0 lead 4:05 in, but Legace gave up goals on two of the first seven shots he faced.

Edmonton's Sergei Samsonov made it 1-all midway through the first period, and Chris Pronger's slap shot from just inside the middle of the blue line at 8:43 of the second gave the gritty Oilers the lead.

Maltby scored his first goal when he charged toward the net and got the middle of his stick on a rebound off Johan Franzen's shot. The sellout crowd erupted when the red lamp was lit and did again following a review.

The fans booed just as loudly when Detroit's Brendan Shanahan was called for roughing with 1:50 remaining in regulation, but they were happy again when Legace turned away the Oilers with about 15 seconds left.

"We had lots of opportunities to win the game ourselves," MacTavish said.

Roloson, acquired on March 7 from Minnesota, made 14 saves in the first period and 16 in the second before facing fewer shots in the third. He stopped 16 shots in the first OT.

The NHL journeyman gave Hockeytown a flashback to the outstanding goaltending the Red Wings faced when Calgary's Miikka Kiprusoff and Anaheim's Jean-Sebastien Giguere helped their teams eliminate Detroit in the second and first rounds of the 2004 and 2003 playoffs, respectively. Those clubs both reached the Stanley Cup finals.

The Oilers haven't advanced in the playoffs since 1998, when Dallas eliminated Edmonton for the first of five straight postseason appearances, with the last one coming three years ago.

Detroit is the most experienced team in the playoffs with more than 1,500 combined games and 26 Stanley Cup rings, while the current Oilers entered the postseason with 449 games of experience and no championships.

The Red Wings are in the postseason for the 15th straight season, the longest active streak in professional sports.

Game notes
Center Pavel Datsyuk, who led the Red Wings in scoring this season, missed the game as expected because of a left thigh injury. He said "maybe" when asked if he'll be ready for Game 2. ... Oilers left winger Ethan Moreau (groin) was also scratched. ... Chris Chelios, Detroit's 44-year-old defenseman, has appeared in 21 postseasons, tying Ray Bourque's NHL record. ... Maltby had his second career two-goal game in the playoffs and first since 1997 in the conference finals against Colorado. It was also his second OT goal in the playoffs, first since 1999 against the Avalanche.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Inside the Minds of the Detroit Tigers

Enjoy this:
Jim Leyland: I need a smoke, goddammit! I NEED A F'N SMOKE! How long was that contract I signed? Oh yeah, 3 years till I can retire in style. Screw that, I NEED A SMOKE!

Pudge Rodriguez: Ball 1? Bullshiat! There's no such thing as a ball, taking a walk is disrespecting my Pudge-liness. I HAVE A STATUE!

Carlos Guillen: Ouch! Dammit! Maaaan, here we go again. Was that my back, knee, elbow, ankle, neck, toe, foot, finger, thumb, wrist, chest, shoulder, or groin?


Thursday, April 13, 2006

Streaky Tigers...

My inital excitement for the Tigers has dwindled slightly as they lost their last game in the Texas Rangers series and have now been swept by the White Sox at home. The final game in the series with the Sox was a 13-9 loss.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland came into this job with an idea of what it would be like to manage in spacious Comerica Park. This wasn't it.

"Obviously, more balls have left the park than I thought would," he said after Thursday's 13-9 loss to Chicago.

Continued

It was a pretty crazy game. The Tigers picked up 21 hits in a L. Verlander did not have a good start. In the fourth they were down 9-1, but had a chance to tie it in the 6th before going back down 5 runs again.

The White Sox are the World Champions, so it will be another week or two to see if the Tigers are fazed by this 4 game skid and to really be able to tell if they are going to be a team playing in October. A win would have been crucial against the Sox as the Tigers division is one of the toughest. The Cleveland Indians are looking to be a competitor this year as well.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Facebook: Deal or no deal?

No Deal.

Word is spreading fast that Facebook turned down an acquisition offer for $750 million because they’re holding out for $2 billion. Impressive considering News Corp purchased MySpace for $580 million last July. The question of whether they should have taken the $750 million offer is obviously impossible for most of us to answer. Regardless, what a great PR move on their part. Making it public that they turned down a $750 million offer and they’re holding out for $2 billion certainly benefits Facebook, in terms of attracting more subscribers and getting additional offers from possible acquirers. I would guess they have a number closer to $1 billion in mind and are publicly claiming they are holding out for $2 billion in hopes of meeting someplace in the middle, but who knows.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Quote of the Day

The pursuit of happiness is a most ridiculous phrase; if you pursue happiness you'll never find it.
C. P. Snow

Monday, April 10, 2006

Numbers to numb you on Monday...

US National Debt

Where are you in the struggle to balance your checkbooks every month?
According to the U.S. national debt clock, US national debt has continued to increase an average of $2.44 billion per day since September 30, 2005; and each US citizen's share of this debt is $28,083.56, as of today.

Grandparents are the greatest

75% of grandparents who say they vote primarily with the interests of their grandchildren in mind.
82% of grandparents who see their grandchildren at least once a month.
70% of grandparents who give more presents than anyone else at birthday parties and other family occasions.
32,000 number of years ago when something nice first happened: Human beings started living long enough to make grandparents possible.

Source: www.chicagoparent.com, April, 2006

Chris Shelton buzz...

I mean I liked Chris Shelton last year but he is finally getting National recognition. Maybe you are a new Tigers fan or you just don't know much about him..
1. Gimme Shelton: That's pretty much verbatim what the Detroit Tigers said in December of 2003, when they plucked him from Pittsburgh for $50,000 as a Rule V pick. And who knew then that they were just a kiss away from a legend being born?

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Tigers Update

The Detroit Tigers are off to a 5-0 start. This is the Tigers' best start since 1985, the year after they won the world series. They blasted the Rangers 7-0 last night. Today, Kenny Rodgers will face the Rangers and battle against Padilla.

This clip here is a young Tigers' star, Joel Zumaya. He throws a legit 97-99 mph fastball and is in the role of setup man for the Tigers right now.

Also, check out Chris Shleton's stats. Amazing start Shelton, batting .700.

Friday, April 07, 2006

Ay yo, how the fuck do a Ferrari end up in a rosebush..

FlipMode EyeWitness News

Tigers extend undefeated streak

mlb.com-- Tigers manager Jim Leyland openly worried before the game that his hitters have hit so many home runs that they'll start thinking only about the long ball. Thursday did nothing to alleviate the problem, but it's a good problem to have. Chris Shelton's second two-homer game in four days and Magglio Ordonez's first two-homer game in three years led a seven-homer Tiger barrage off Rangers pitching, sending the Tigers to a 10-6 win at Texas.

The Tigers have a history of putting motion on pitchers whose knuckleballs go flat. They hit six home runs off of Boston's Tim Wakefield on Aug. 8, 2004, at Comerica Park, tying a Major League record for a pitcher in a game. Detroit spread out that power display over five innings. Tigers hitters needed just four innings to do it on Thursday off Rangers knuckler R.A. Dickey.

Brandon Inge started the string on the second pitch of the game, taking a hanging knuckler from Dickey (0-1) deep to left for his second home run of the year. After Placido Polanco and Ivan Rodriguez flied out to right, Ordonez ended his 0-for-8 start to the season with another solo shot to left.

Shelton homered leading off the second inning, then after a third-inning respite, resumed the home run derby with another solo shot with one out in the fourth to pass Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols for the Major League lead with his fourth home run this season. Carlos Guillen walked before Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames hit back-to-back blasts.

Ordonez's solo homer off the left-field foul pole leading off the ninth inning against Brian Shouse put the Tigers' power pace on a historic level. Detroit's 12 home runs the last two games and 15 homers in three games this season both surpassed franchise records for any two- or three-game stretch, respectively. Detroit already led the Majors in home runs -- Thursday's effort gave them more than double the total of any other American League team and six more than Atlanta. They fell one short of the team record for most home runs in a game.

Ironically, lack of offense plagued Tigers starter Nate Robertson last year with the third-lowest support in the league. Thursday's cushion allowed Robertson (1-0) to cruise to a victory. He allowed three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Friday Hump Day Bases

¤ Florida Marlins +1 +115 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Vargas vs Trachsel
Vargas had 6 spring training starts, getting a record of 2-1. He saw the most innings of any of the Marlins pitchers. 25 innings he comiled a 4.32 ERA allowing 12 runs in those 25 innings.
Trachsel also saw the most innings in Spring Training for the Mets. In 21.1 innings he had a ERA of 6.33 allowing 15 runs and 26 hits. He had a record of 1-1 in spring training.
I have played the Marlins once before this season and it was positive money on the runline (+1.5). They lost by 1 run to the Marlins, but I cashed my ticket. I remember Vargas from last year and will take the positive odds tomorrow.

¤
Washington Nationals +130
2 units
Starting Pitchers: Armasvs Backe
- this if from Apr. 4
News: Backe may miss his first scheduled start of the year with back problems, the Houston Chronicle reports. Spin: "It would be something that could be a consideration," manager Phil Garner said of potentially skipping Backe. "We're not planning on it right now. If Backe cannot start, Wandy Rodriguez would go on Wednesday and rookie Taylor Buchholz would move up to Friday. -Armas has a good track record versus Houston and I still don't think they have their bats going yet.

¤ Chicago Cubs +110 2 unit
Starting Pitchers: Madduxvs Suppan
-Cubs at home with the Vet on the mound. Suppan was weak in spring. Only a one unit play because I seem to always be on the wrong side of the Cubbies games.

¤ Cubs/Cards Over 7 +104
2 units
Starting Pitchers: Maddux vs Suppan
Seems a bit low to me. Good odds and chance to push. It is the first start for Greg Maddux since his shoulder injury and Suppan can get hit up. Making it a 2 unit play and I still have just 1 units on the Cubs

¤ Boston Red Sox -107 1 unit
Starting Pitchers: Clement vs Cabrera

¤ New York Yankees -1 +105 3 units
Starting Pitchers: Chacon vs Escobar
Athough Escobar had a good Spring Training performance, he doesn't have good numbers against the Yankees. He has a 7.62 ERA over the last 3 seasons. Chacon had a good spring with 27 innings allowing 11 runs and a 3.67 ERA. He saw the most innings in training out of any of the Yankee pitchers. He has 6 innings of experience against LAA and has allowed no runs.
--Yankees had a 4 run lead on Oakland before allowing 9 unanswered. Errors had a big part factor in that game. I expect the Yanks to play a cleaner game and come away with the win.

¤ Chicago White Sox -1 -140 1.5 units
Starting Pitchers: Garland vs Affeldt
First thing to notice is this is a 1.5 unit play. I don't like laying all that chalk. I am quoting lltb43 "Garland was 4-0 ML/RL in Apr 2005. His ERA was 1.80 (30 innings/6 earned runs). His ERA vs KC in 2005 was 1.19 (15.1 innings/2 earned runs). Affeldt appeared in 5 games in Apr 2005. His ERA was 4.29 (4.2 innings/2 earned runs)." Like them to win by 2 or more runs, but I'm only laying 1 run since I have to lay juice in either situation. Would much rather have the chance for a push if Chicago leads by 2 in the 9th and gives one up.


I am +7.00 on Seattle plays. I was considering picking Hernandez but I would much rather see him play this season before I wager on him. Quite a few plays but they should be pretty good ones.

Considerations:
I was considering taking Texas as a fade of Mike Maroth. I couldn't find enough information on J. Koronka for Texas. I didn't find any spring stats. I checked ESPN and he is young, played with the Cubs, and got beat up on the few opponents he saw. Detroit batters could light him up, so I'm not playing it unless I get much more information.

Cleveland -1 with Byrd, but this will be Byrd's first start with Cleveland. I don't want to lay anything yet. Wasn't really impressed that much with him last year in the playoffs. Lohse I believe has an alright track record against Cleveland. Not enough value right now for me to play ML or RL.

Totals: 3-0 on totals so far. The only one that sticks out at me is Seattle/Oakland over 7.5, but like I said I don't know how Hernandez is gonna pitch. Also, tonight Seattle game is at 6-2 in the 8th inning and Loazia got hit up real bad. I will have to do some more research and looking around to see if I wanna take a total.

Please take the time to add comments and suggest some plays for me to look at with some reasoning.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

NL EAST thoughts and ideas

National League Division Thoughts.

NL EAST.

Interesting trades and moves in the NL east this year. The Braves look to make it 15 straight division titles with solid pitching and the "baby Braves". Mike Hampton being out for the season may take its toll on the braves this year. Relief pitching and not having a solid closer may again come into affect this year for the Braves. Edgar Renteria should make a very adequate replacement for Rafi Furcal that went to the dodgers. Smoltz is Smoltz and should dominate again this year, Hudson is solid, and Jorge Sosa is extremely dominate when the Braves are at home.

The Mets are looking to knock the Braves down a notch this year by making even more blockbuster moves than last year. Adding Delgado, Lo Duca, and Billy Wagner might just be enough to take the division title from the Braves. Beltran should have a bounce back year this year after a disappointing first year with the Mets last year. It will be interesting to see how Pedro comes out after toe problems in spring training. The downfall for the Mets will be if the other starters besides Pedro will be able to go 7 or 8 solid innings consistently. Having Wagner to close out the is great, but if the 2,3,4,5 starters don’t go the distance, it could be a problem.

The Nationals made a couple key moves this off-season the key move being Alfonso Soriano. Soriano had more stolen bases last year himself than the whole Nationals team combined. That will be a solid addition for the Nats not to mention the offense Soriano will be able to provide. The only problem with Soriano is the drama that unfolded with him not wanting to play in the outfield. The Nats already have a solid second baseman in Jose Vidro and it will be interesting to see how Soriano reacts to left field and if he creates any more drama that might negatively effect the team. The Nats were outstanding last year in the first half of the season, winning 12 consecutive 1 runs games; however the lack of offensive took its toll in the latter half of the season as the Nats dropped out of playoff contention. Livan Hernandez is a solid workhorse who has a extremely potent bat for a pitcher. He will go deep into many games this year. Patterson is solid but heavy analysis should be considered before playing him on the road, especially against division rivals such as the Mets.

more on the NL East to come........

6-1 wednesday mlb.
4 plays today.
1. atl
2.wash +200 1/2 unit
3. stl phi O 10
4. pit cin O 10
all plays for 1 unit except for 1/2unit on washington
www.jmhandicapping.com
Record
More

MLB Selections for the 6th

¤ Cincinnati Reds -1 +112 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Snell vs Claussen
Reds are at home after a nice win against the Cubs. Pittsburgh has been having trouble scoring runs. Pittsburgh lost 3-2 in Milwaukee and dropped all 3 games of the series.
Matchup Information

¤ Washington Nationals +1 +146 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Martinez vs Ortiz
Washington had a great come from behind win last night. Pedro Martinez is a quality pitcher but the Mets bullpen is struggling. Taking the run with the positive money.
Matchup Information

EARLY GAMES
¤ Philly +110 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Marquis vs Lidle
Philly looking to avoid the sweep. Played a solid game last night (though they did not win). 2 unit play to start the day with.
Matchup Information

¤ ATL/SF over 8 -120
2 units
Starting Pitchers: Lowry vs Sosa
-Juice isn't great but a slugfest could be possible. Sosa should be good for quite a few runs. He was very poor in Spring Training. 24 hits in 14 innings, with over a 7ERA. 0-2 as well. 12 runs given up in 14 innings. Lowry not quite as bad, 12 runs in 23 innings.
Matchup Information

¤ Colorado Rockies -121 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Batista vs Francis

¤ Seattle Mariners -104 4 units
Starting Pitchers: Loaiza vs Meche

Amo Le Series Italian

AC MILAN v. OLYMPIQUE LYONAISSE (2nd Leg)

Goals
MIL: Filippo Inzaghi (25) Filippo Inzaghi (88) Andriy Shevchenko (90)
LYON: Mahamadou Diarra (31)

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Popped Cherry Wednesday Bases

¤ Chicago Cubs -103 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Rusch vs Arroyo
-Ok. I have not looked at any stats for this play. Bronson Arroyo lost me plenty of money last year on the Red Sox. Even with tremendous run support he still managed to get hit to royal hell. I do remember some really poor spring training appearances where he has gotten knocked up just as bad. That is factor one for me, I think Arroyo is nothing special. Now, I've been impressed by the Cubs thus far this year. Like the price and I have some confidence in Rusch based on his level of experience. Anyway, I locked in the wager but I encourage other people who have played with/against the Cubs to comment on THEIR own particular reasons to help others.
Matchup Information

¤ Chicago White Sox -120 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Contreras vs Lee
Third game of this opening series between the Indiands and White Sox. Contreras is a stud in my opinion. One of my more favorite pitchers to watch during the playoff run last season. Thinking the Sox take 2 out of 3.
Matchup Information

¤ Florida Marlins +1.5 -122 1 unit
Starting Pitchers: Moehler vs Backe
The game last night was 11-0 going into the bottom of the 9th, when Houston put up 2 runs. Before then it had been 17 innings, while only putting up 1 run, which was scored on a wild pitch. I'm laying the 22 cents and taking the RL with the Marlins
Matchup Information

¤ Seattle -1 +150 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Washburn vs Weaver

¤
Pittsburgh Pirates +105 1 unit
Starting Pitchers: Duke vs Okha

¤ Baltimore Orioles -1 -105 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Bedard vs McClung
Matchup Information

¤ San Fransisco Giants -110 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Morris vs Estes
Matchup Information

¤ New York Yankees -110 2 units
Starting Pitchers: Wang vs Haren
Matchup Information

Yesterday, 1-2 dropping a unit. I have never liked Scott Procter and don't know why the hell he is still on the Yanks. He came in the game to promptly give up the winning run in the bottom of the 9th. Houston -1.5 +100 was a very bad call but I'm happy I took a shot atleast and didn't just pay for the juice on the ML. Either way Houston was crap. The total was pretty easy in the ATL/LAD game and I managed to stay away from the over 8 in the Yanks. Losing day but lots learned.

Today, the top two listed plays are 2 units and my RL play is 1 unit.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Shelton and Rogers lift Tigers

Chris "Big Red" Shelton had his first multi-homer day, as he hit 2 in the Opening Day 3-1 victory down in Kansas City. "Very good ballgame," manager Jim Leyland said, upon his first win leading the only team he knew for the first 19 years of his pro baseball career. "The team played well. We got some good pitching. We just got a few more hits, and ours managed to go over the fence."
Shelton happened to provide just enough support for Rogers (1-0). The Tigers' oldest Opening Day pitcher ever and oldest to start any game since Wild Bill Donovan in 1918, Rogers battled off the lingering effects of a flu bug he had last week to retire the first six batters he faced and finish off his final seven batters in order. He scattered a run on three hits, struck out five and walked no one. MORE

Distant Praying Doesn't Help

Praying for other people to recover from an illness is ineffective, according to the largest, best-designed study. 52% of patients experiencing complications regardless of whether they were the subject of prayers. And worst of all, 59% of the patients who knew they were being prayed for experienced complications. I think this should put to rest the notion that distant prayer has any effect.

Source: American Heart Journal, April. 2006.

Tuesday Bases

Today's Picks:
New York Yankees +110 1 unit (Pinnacle)
Starting Pitchers: Mussina vs Harden
There is the fact that the Yankees are a powerhouse (love them or hate them--I love them), and the fact that they destroyed Oakland last night, and now they are being offered at + odds? Hmm... It gets better when you look at the pitching matchup. Mussina last season was 2-0 vs OAK with a 1.13 ERA. Harden last season vs NYY was 0-2 with over a 6 ERA. Seems like there is only one choice on the side here, especially with the odds I got as soon as the line popped out.
Consider:
ALT runline at -1.5 +175.
Matchup Information

¤ Houston Astros -1.5 +100 1 unit (Pinnacle)
Starting Pitchers: Pettite vs Mitre
I don't have too much to say about this except Pettite is a strong pitcher. I loved watching him last year in the playoffs and Mitre was a 2-5 pitcher on the Cubs with over a 5 ERA. Fading the Florida Marlins when they don't have Willis on the mound. Mitre is young himself, only born in 1981.
Matchup Information

¤ Braves/Dodgers over 7 -120 1 unit (Pinnacle)
Starting Pitchers: Smoltz v Penny
Yesterday's game was a shootout. I don't like the juice on this one, but I'm not gonna buy a half run because then I get the opportunity for a push. A 3-4 game seems like it will be easy as hell to reach, just for my push. Smoltz is solid, no doubt about that, but he is 38 years old and when he has a bad day it is bad. Brad Penny was a losing pitcher last year and most of the games near the end of the season were all over 7 runs.
Matchup Information

Anyway, good day yesterday going 3-0 and keeping a loss away so far. All plays are one unit still, as there is no reason to risk more since the season is just beginning. Please comment and discuss these games, and other games if you would like.
Goodluck

Monday, April 03, 2006

Opening Day Bases

Today's Picks
Detroit Tigers -115
1 unit Match-up information| ESPN
LA Angels -130
1 unit Matchup Information| ESPN
Yanks/A's over 7.5
1 unit Matchup Information| ESPN


Starting Pitchers:

Detroit Tigers: Kenny Rodgers
KC Royals: Scott Elarton

LA Angels: Bartolo Colon
Seattle Mariners: Jamie Moyer

Yankees: Randy Johnson
Oakland: Barry Zito

Why I like these plays:
-I have been following the Tigers and I like their chances today with Rogers at the mound. KC has one of the worst opening day records in MLB: Royals 13-24 .351
-I like the Angels based on the pitching matchup. If Colon is healthy he is a CY young winner last year. Moyer was 13-7 with a 4.28 ERA
- Randy didn't look like his oldself last year. Zito has dropped his last 5 outings against the Yankees. Both teams can hit the ball so I am going to take my chances on the over for the opening game. 5-3 game seems reasonable.
Goodluck

Sunday, April 02, 2006

If you believe that you are lucky, you will get lucky

If you believe in you are lucky, you will get lucky, according to experimental psychologist Richard Wiseman, the author of the book The Luck Factor . Wiseman gave research subjects the "big five" personality scale, which measures "agreeableness," "conscientiousness," "extroversion," "neuroticism" and "openness." Although there were no differences between lucky and unlucky people on agreeableness and conscientiousness, Wiseman found significant differences for extroversion, neuroticism and openness.

1. Lucky people score significantly higher than unlucky people on extroversion. Wiseman explains: "Lucky people meeting a large number of people, being a 'social magnet' and keeping in contact with people." Lucky people, smile 2 times as often and engage in more eye contact than unlucky people do, which leads to more social encounters, which generates more opportunities.


2. The neuroticism dimension measures how anxious or relaxed someone is, and Wiseman found that the lucky ones were 0.5 times as anxious as the unlucky ones--that is, "because lucky people tend to be more relaxed than most, they are more likely to notice chance opportunities, even when they are not expecting them".


3. Lucky people also score significantly higher in openness than unlucky people do. "Lucky people are open to new experiences in their lives.... They don't tend to be bound by convention and they like the notion of unpredictability." such, lucky people travel more, encounter novel prospects and welcome unique opportunities.


Those luck factors don't apply to winning lottery though. Although lucky people were 2 times as confident as the unlucky ones that they would win the lottery, there was no difference in winnings found by Wiseman's research.

Its a numeric life

ESPN MLB Opener



Today's Pick
Chicago White Sox ML
Odds: -115 (Pinnacle)
Size:
1 unit [money management]
Result: W


Match-up information
Starting Pitchers:
Cleveland: C.Sabathia
Chicago: M.Buehrle
Why I like this:
▪I have read that the Sox will be having a ceremony to raise the world series banner before the game. That leads me to believe that it will be a packed stadium with lots of energy. Great way to start the season.

▪There aren't many stats to analyze but I like getting Buehrle @ home (with lots to show) for such a cheap price. Buehrle had a 16-8 record last year, with a 3.12 ERA (149 SO). Sabathia had a 15-10 record, with a 4.03 ERA (161 SO)

▪Although the White Sox had a pretty poor spring season, they are still the world champions and I will give them the benefit of the doubt while not laying much chalk on them.

to making money this season.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

MLB Regular Season Contest

April 3rd is opening day for MLB. I have set up the MLB Regular Season Contest over at wagerline. This contest will run from April 4rd-Nov 15th. You are able to make picks RIGHT NOW. The object is to test your skills at picking winners over the course of the summer. Money line and Game Total Wagers are available wagers. Know when to pick your heavy favorites and know when to ride those dogs. Baseball is a game of streaks. Usually, I like to not pick against teams that have won 3 in a row. Goodluck. Prize can be discussed.
I was involved in a college basketball that was selecting only monely line dogs, at Covers. If people are interested I thought I would run a similar contest in MLB (picking dogs), with somewhere from 5-15 people. I haven't decide the exact number that I will track, but if enough people are interested, I can set up the details. contact me or using this link to post at Covers. This contest will start April 3rd.