Monday, May 01, 2006

Monday on the Diamond

Record: 45-28-2 (61.64%) ROI: 20.69%
1Unit Plays: 32-20 (61.65%) [+13.83] ROI: 22.64
2Unit Plays: 10-6-1 (62.50%) [+9.00] ROI: 25.58%
3Unit Plays: 3-2 (60.00%) [+1.29] ROI: 6.35%
Profit in Units: +24.12
Yesterday: 4-3 (+.59)
Progress
Detailed Ledger (Team breakdown, graphs, graphs)
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
April 24-May 1: 21-13-0 (+9.47 units; ROI: 13.36%)
======================
Basics: 1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.
======================

Well I did not meet my 2+ unit goal for Sunday, but I did manage to stay in the black and make some money. I'll probably keep it short and sweet for today.

Sunday, April 30, 2006

Sunday Diamond Picks

sunday selections forum

Goal is +2

A Credit Nation

Last year in US, credit card companies spent $6 billion dollars to promote their credit cards services, a 16% increase from the previous year. Each month, an average adult received 6 unsolicited credit card application forms, and 0.3% of people do apply for them.
Heard from cbsnews, April 30th, 2006.

Lions draft Blog read

As always, The Wayne Fontes Experience is a great read and would like to direct your attention to the site dedicated to local sports conversation:
As I was killing time before the upcoming gut wrencher that the Red Wings game will most likely be, I ran into an interesting article. Page 2 ranked the "100 Worst Draft Picks Ever" today. The great State of Michigan was well represented, as you might think. I thought I'd touch base on those who were drafted by or played with, at one time or another, teams from the mitten.

Continued: This list is not complete without Reggie Rogers

Sunday Bases Discussion and Picks

Picks for Today record: 41-25-2 (62%) ROI: 22.11%
**2Unit** Plays: 9-4-1
***3Unit*** Plays: 3-2
Units gained/lost: +23.53
Yesterday: 5-2 (+2.84)
Progress
Daily Excel Sheet (Team/weekly/monthly breakdowns)
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
April 24-May 1: 21-13-0 (+8.88 units; ROI: 14.62%)
======================
Basics: 1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.
======================

Pretty light day yesterday, not risking more than 1 unit on any single play. Lost one play on the run-line (cardinals) and another on the NYM/ATL total. Won some easy ones on Tigers -1, NYY -1.5, and Milwaukee ML and a couple more on Seattle ML and CWS ML. My goal was 2-3 units for the day and I hit 2.8 units. The goal for Sunday will be 2 units.

Been having success on the weekends so far. Saturdays (2): +12.65 and Sundays (1): +2.70 If I can get another 2 units for a Sunday, I'll be pleased.

Just beginning to look at the schedule and lineups for tomorrow. I'll be sharing things as they come to me as well.

Below are some trends for the following game. I try to glance at trends and try to find certain ones that maybe applicable. In the case here, the trends really aren't very convincing one way or the other. I like that CWS are 9-0 as dogs in their last 9. Garland is 6-0 after the Sox score less than 2 runs in their previous games. I like that the Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.

White Sox vs Angels
----------------------
• White Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-0 in Garland's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-1 in Garland's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• White Sox are 5-2 in Garland's last 7 starts.
• White Sox are 4-0 in Garland's last 4 starts as an underdog.
• White Sox are 1-4 in Garland's last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 day games.
• Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.
• Angels are 0-3 in their last 3 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 9-4 in Santana's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Angels are 6-1 in Santana's last 7 starts as a home favorite.

• White Sox are 3-0 in Garland's last 3 road starts with Reliford behind home plate.
• Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Reliford behind home plate.

Seems like a tough matchup to take the side. I've had the CWS the last 2 games. Not sure if I should just avoid this one all together. Under in the total looks pretty convincing, but have not had great success on judging the strength of my leans on totals so far.

Twinkies @ Tigers
-------------------------
In my opinion, this is a game to avoid.

I have had Detroit on the -1 the first two games. WHOA! were those some blow outs. Minnesota lost two games in a row by more than 10 runs. At times, the team looked like they lacked fundamentals. They had errors that were laughable. Detroit is jacking the ball out of the park like crazy... so if with the tasty offer the books are giving, I don't think it is wise to take Minnesota. I think they get swept here. This game will be closer (obviously) but the only bet I would make on this game would be Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +125. I guess I shouldn't say only (I would take ML if someone made me pick a ML on the game--but wouldn't put more than 1 unit on it), but I think the RL is the best bet on this game is.

Fade Rogers with a 2.42 ERA in his last 3? When Lohse has 'improved' his ERA to 6.46 in the last 3 games, compared to his 8.55 overall..... I want to press that I don't think it is smart to fade the Tigers tomorrow.

I have a feeling that the Tigers are really going to want to get this home sweep, after that long successful road trip this will feel like a gem. I also think that they really aren't going to have an awful time sweeping. Sometimes it is just tough to bet on a team 3 days in a row

Waiting and seeing if the line comes down (did last night and I saved slightly)... & then I'll reconsider in the morning

Toronto @ Yankees
-------------------------
I know who I like in this matchup and I'm pretty sure I'll be taking NYY -1 -143 or NYY -1.5 +102. Yankees have yet to win a 1-run game, so the value in taking the Yankees has been in taking the RL....

Mussina has been solid this season. A WHIP of under 1 in his last 3 and under a 3 ERA, it seems to make sense to take the Yankees against the lefty Chacin. He is 4-0 and that to me is impressive with his 5+ ERA... Yankees are batting over .300 against lefties and had a good day at the dish yesterday... May carry over and they could deliver Chacin his first loss.

Games I won't be touching unless I get strong reason too....

--------------------------------------------------
Philly and Pittsburgh --- 2 bad teams, coin flipper

Seattle and Baltimore ---hit two games on the series and both team are pretty inconsistent. Couldn't tell you how this Sunday game is going to play out.

Boston and Tampa--- Would like Boston but not at that price. Schilling has been sick, but less good the last 3 (still very good)-- paying the price on the road in a rubber match doesn't sound like an exciting bet. If anything maybe, Tampa +1.5 +105 for 1 unit.

Considerations for discussion and the morning...
----------
Houston/Nati Over 9 or 9.5

Cubs/Milwaukee Over -- especially if it is like 8 or 8.5

NY METS--- streaking right now?

Cleveland? ...

Picks will be finalized in the morning...

Saturday, April 29, 2006

Saturday Bases

Picks for Today record: 36-23-2 (61%) ROI: 21.01%
**2Unit** Plays: 9-4-1
***3Unit*** Plays: 3-2
Units gained/lost: +20.69
Yesterday: 5-2 (+5.72) progress
Daily Excel Sheet
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
======================
How this works:
1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.
======================
5 EARLY GAMES
1. Seattle Mariners -118 *1UNIT*
Felix Hernandez over Bruce Chen sounds good. &
I'm not thinking the vig will get cheaper.
• 2. Detroit Tigers -1 -105 *1UNIT*
Waited overnight on this one and I got a slightly better prices (ML dropped about 6 cents and the -1 runline 4 cents. I'm gonna put a unit down on Verlander and the Tigers to win another one against Minnesota. The bet is only 1 unit (yesterday it was 3 units), but I think their chances of winning are about the same but I don't feel the need to push the issue in game 2.
• 3. New York Yankees -1.5 -128 *1UNIT*
I have decided to add this early game. I think Yankees win today and they haven't won a game by just a single run all season long. I'd rather lose on the chance of a 1 run game then pay close to -255 for the ML.
• 4. Milwaukee Brewers -109 *1UNIT*
Pretty much I'm thinking Cubs aren't gonna score many runs against the lefty... Rusch lets up quite a few. Rubber match on Sunday...
• 5. St Louis Cardinals -1.5 -116 *1UNIT*
Don't see any reason why the Cardinals don't snap back and have a great game under the start of Carpenter. ML I think is a given but you are really paying a risky price, so I'm taking the runline.

2 LATE GAMES
•6. Mets/Braves OVER 8 +104 *1UNIT*
• 7. Chicago White Sox -116 *1UNIT*
Going to bite on Contreras and the Sox for two nights in a row.

Saturday goal is to net +2 to +3 units. Won't be looking to push too much, as last Saturday was 6-1 +9.81 units (the 22nd of April).

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Got that Bobb Deep





If you haven't heard this tape yet, pay attention. My boy Adro knows the kid who flipped this shit, mr. dj swindle, and damn.. the beats on here are cold as hell. If you're a fan of bob marley and hip hop, its a must hear. nuff talkin.. heres to listening.






bobb_deep_SoMuchTrouble.m4a

Won't you help me find my puppy?

Starting now and probably til the end of summer.. I'll be throwing tracks at you, whoever reads, to listen to and add to your summer 06' mixtape. It'll be both new shizz I come across and some old classic jams. It'll be everything from hip hop to funk to indie rock. Just listen to the songs and embrace the warm fuzzy feeling it gives you inside.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Introducing "The Malboro performance meter"

I witnessed the best at bat I've seen from a Tiger player in recent memory during today's thrilling win against the A's. Brandon Inge's 15 pitch at bat, resulting in a walk to keep a come from behind rally alive was a thing of beauty. Even more impressive was that Inge was behind 0-2 in the count, then battled for 7 minutes, fouling off 9 pitches. Not nearly as dramatic as Dave Bergman's legendary nationally televised 19 pitch at bat against Toronto in 1984, as that ended with Bergman hitting a 3 run home run, but it had it's similarities.

It was so good, that Jim Leyland had something to say about the length of Inge's plate appearance...

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland joked that Inge stood in there so long he had enough time to smoke more than one cigarette.

“One-and-a-half Marlboros,” Leyland said. “That was a tremendous at-bat. He showed great discipline up there. When people see that, they see the way it can be done.”


A one-and-a-half-marlboro at bat. I don't think Leyland could have given Inge any higher praise that that...

Wings win in Double OT

DETROIT (AP) -- The Detroit Red Wings survived a scare because Kirk Maltby has been listening to his coaches.

Maltby scored his second goal of the night 2:39 into double overtime to lift Detroit to a 3-2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1 of their first-round series Friday.

He ended the 3½-hour game with a long shot from outside the right circle that was deflected past goaltender Dwayne Roloson by the stick of Edmonton teammate Rem Murray.

"Our coaching staff has been harping on us to get the puck on the net because you never know what can happen," Maltby said. "My shot just clipped his stick, and more times than not, those are the kind of goals that win in OT."

Maltby made it 2-all with 6:17 left in regulation when he scored off a rebound on a goal that stood after a video review. He had just five goals this season after scoring 14 in each of the previous two.

"You need guys like Malts to win at playoff time -- he competes," coach Mike Babcock said after coaching Detroit for the first time in the postseason.

Roloson made 54 saves.

"Unfortunately, they got a lucky bounce at the end of the game," Roloson said. "You can't fault our guys at all."

Manny Legace, who made just 23 saves for the Red Wings, said he felt a sense of relief.

"Especially when it goes to double overtime and the other goalie stands on his head," Legace said. "We got lucky."

Game 2 of the best-of-seven Western Conference series is Sunday in Detroit.

The Oilers had a chance to steal the game against the Stanley Cup favorites, but Edmonton coach Craig MacTavish said his team has to get over the disappointment quickly.

"You can't carry that baggage long in postseason because that really debilitates you ability to bounce back," MacTavish said.

Three of the four regular-season meetings went to overtime with Detroit winning the lone game decided in regulation. The Red Wings won once in overtime, and the Oilers won a game in overtime and another in a shootout.

The Red Wings entered the playoffs with the best record in the NHL for the third time in four seasons, but they are coming off two straight early-postseason exits.

Detroit got off to a good start, with Robert Lang scoring on the power play for a 1-0 lead 4:05 in, but Legace gave up goals on two of the first seven shots he faced.

Edmonton's Sergei Samsonov made it 1-all midway through the first period, and Chris Pronger's slap shot from just inside the middle of the blue line at 8:43 of the second gave the gritty Oilers the lead.

Maltby scored his first goal when he charged toward the net and got the middle of his stick on a rebound off Johan Franzen's shot. The sellout crowd erupted when the red lamp was lit and did again following a review.

The fans booed just as loudly when Detroit's Brendan Shanahan was called for roughing with 1:50 remaining in regulation, but they were happy again when Legace turned away the Oilers with about 15 seconds left.

"We had lots of opportunities to win the game ourselves," MacTavish said.

Roloson, acquired on March 7 from Minnesota, made 14 saves in the first period and 16 in the second before facing fewer shots in the third. He stopped 16 shots in the first OT.

The NHL journeyman gave Hockeytown a flashback to the outstanding goaltending the Red Wings faced when Calgary's Miikka Kiprusoff and Anaheim's Jean-Sebastien Giguere helped their teams eliminate Detroit in the second and first rounds of the 2004 and 2003 playoffs, respectively. Those clubs both reached the Stanley Cup finals.

The Oilers haven't advanced in the playoffs since 1998, when Dallas eliminated Edmonton for the first of five straight postseason appearances, with the last one coming three years ago.

Detroit is the most experienced team in the playoffs with more than 1,500 combined games and 26 Stanley Cup rings, while the current Oilers entered the postseason with 449 games of experience and no championships.

The Red Wings are in the postseason for the 15th straight season, the longest active streak in professional sports.

Game notes
Center Pavel Datsyuk, who led the Red Wings in scoring this season, missed the game as expected because of a left thigh injury. He said "maybe" when asked if he'll be ready for Game 2. ... Oilers left winger Ethan Moreau (groin) was also scratched. ... Chris Chelios, Detroit's 44-year-old defenseman, has appeared in 21 postseasons, tying Ray Bourque's NHL record. ... Maltby had his second career two-goal game in the playoffs and first since 1997 in the conference finals against Colorado. It was also his second OT goal in the playoffs, first since 1999 against the Avalanche.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Inside the Minds of the Detroit Tigers

Enjoy this:
Jim Leyland: I need a smoke, goddammit! I NEED A F'N SMOKE! How long was that contract I signed? Oh yeah, 3 years till I can retire in style. Screw that, I NEED A SMOKE!

Pudge Rodriguez: Ball 1? Bullshiat! There's no such thing as a ball, taking a walk is disrespecting my Pudge-liness. I HAVE A STATUE!

Carlos Guillen: Ouch! Dammit! Maaaan, here we go again. Was that my back, knee, elbow, ankle, neck, toe, foot, finger, thumb, wrist, chest, shoulder, or groin?


Thursday, April 13, 2006

Streaky Tigers...

My inital excitement for the Tigers has dwindled slightly as they lost their last game in the Texas Rangers series and have now been swept by the White Sox at home. The final game in the series with the Sox was a 13-9 loss.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland came into this job with an idea of what it would be like to manage in spacious Comerica Park. This wasn't it.

"Obviously, more balls have left the park than I thought would," he said after Thursday's 13-9 loss to Chicago.

Continued

It was a pretty crazy game. The Tigers picked up 21 hits in a L. Verlander did not have a good start. In the fourth they were down 9-1, but had a chance to tie it in the 6th before going back down 5 runs again.

The White Sox are the World Champions, so it will be another week or two to see if the Tigers are fazed by this 4 game skid and to really be able to tell if they are going to be a team playing in October. A win would have been crucial against the Sox as the Tigers division is one of the toughest. The Cleveland Indians are looking to be a competitor this year as well.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Facebook: Deal or no deal?

No Deal.

Word is spreading fast that Facebook turned down an acquisition offer for $750 million because they’re holding out for $2 billion. Impressive considering News Corp purchased MySpace for $580 million last July. The question of whether they should have taken the $750 million offer is obviously impossible for most of us to answer. Regardless, what a great PR move on their part. Making it public that they turned down a $750 million offer and they’re holding out for $2 billion certainly benefits Facebook, in terms of attracting more subscribers and getting additional offers from possible acquirers. I would guess they have a number closer to $1 billion in mind and are publicly claiming they are holding out for $2 billion in hopes of meeting someplace in the middle, but who knows.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Quote of the Day

The pursuit of happiness is a most ridiculous phrase; if you pursue happiness you'll never find it.
C. P. Snow

Monday, April 10, 2006

Numbers to numb you on Monday...

US National Debt

Where are you in the struggle to balance your checkbooks every month?
According to the U.S. national debt clock, US national debt has continued to increase an average of $2.44 billion per day since September 30, 2005; and each US citizen's share of this debt is $28,083.56, as of today.

Grandparents are the greatest

75% of grandparents who say they vote primarily with the interests of their grandchildren in mind.
82% of grandparents who see their grandchildren at least once a month.
70% of grandparents who give more presents than anyone else at birthday parties and other family occasions.
32,000 number of years ago when something nice first happened: Human beings started living long enough to make grandparents possible.

Source: www.chicagoparent.com, April, 2006

Chris Shelton buzz...

I mean I liked Chris Shelton last year but he is finally getting National recognition. Maybe you are a new Tigers fan or you just don't know much about him..
1. Gimme Shelton: That's pretty much verbatim what the Detroit Tigers said in December of 2003, when they plucked him from Pittsburgh for $50,000 as a Rule V pick. And who knew then that they were just a kiss away from a legend being born?