Sunday, April 30, 2006

Sunday Bases Discussion and Picks

Picks for Today record: 41-25-2 (62%) ROI: 22.11%
**2Unit** Plays: 9-4-1
***3Unit*** Plays: 3-2
Units gained/lost: +23.53
Yesterday: 5-2 (+2.84)
Daily Excel Sheet (Team/weekly/monthly breakdowns)
April 17-24: 20-12-0 (+14.65 units; ROI: 32.08%)
April 24-May 1: 21-13-0 (+8.88 units; ROI: 14.62%)
Basics: 1 to 3 unit plays. Unless otherwise stated, plays are for 1 unit.
Number is to win on favorites; risking on dogs.

Pretty light day yesterday, not risking more than 1 unit on any single play. Lost one play on the run-line (cardinals) and another on the NYM/ATL total. Won some easy ones on Tigers -1, NYY -1.5, and Milwaukee ML and a couple more on Seattle ML and CWS ML. My goal was 2-3 units for the day and I hit 2.8 units. The goal for Sunday will be 2 units.

Been having success on the weekends so far. Saturdays (2): +12.65 and Sundays (1): +2.70 If I can get another 2 units for a Sunday, I'll be pleased.

Just beginning to look at the schedule and lineups for tomorrow. I'll be sharing things as they come to me as well.

Below are some trends for the following game. I try to glance at trends and try to find certain ones that maybe applicable. In the case here, the trends really aren't very convincing one way or the other. I like that CWS are 9-0 as dogs in their last 9. Garland is 6-0 after the Sox score less than 2 runs in their previous games. I like that the Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.

White Sox vs Angels
• White Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-0 in Garland's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• White Sox are 6-1 in Garland's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• White Sox are 5-2 in Garland's last 7 starts.
• White Sox are 4-0 in Garland's last 4 starts as an underdog.
• White Sox are 1-4 in Garland's last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 day games.
• Angels are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 home starts.
• Angels are 0-3 in their last 3 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 9-4 in Santana's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Angels are 6-1 in Santana's last 7 starts as a home favorite.

• White Sox are 3-0 in Garland's last 3 road starts with Reliford behind home plate.
• Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Reliford behind home plate.

Seems like a tough matchup to take the side. I've had the CWS the last 2 games. Not sure if I should just avoid this one all together. Under in the total looks pretty convincing, but have not had great success on judging the strength of my leans on totals so far.

Twinkies @ Tigers
In my opinion, this is a game to avoid.

I have had Detroit on the -1 the first two games. WHOA! were those some blow outs. Minnesota lost two games in a row by more than 10 runs. At times, the team looked like they lacked fundamentals. They had errors that were laughable. Detroit is jacking the ball out of the park like crazy... so if with the tasty offer the books are giving, I don't think it is wise to take Minnesota. I think they get swept here. This game will be closer (obviously) but the only bet I would make on this game would be Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +125. I guess I shouldn't say only (I would take ML if someone made me pick a ML on the game--but wouldn't put more than 1 unit on it), but I think the RL is the best bet on this game is.

Fade Rogers with a 2.42 ERA in his last 3? When Lohse has 'improved' his ERA to 6.46 in the last 3 games, compared to his 8.55 overall..... I want to press that I don't think it is smart to fade the Tigers tomorrow.

I have a feeling that the Tigers are really going to want to get this home sweep, after that long successful road trip this will feel like a gem. I also think that they really aren't going to have an awful time sweeping. Sometimes it is just tough to bet on a team 3 days in a row

Waiting and seeing if the line comes down (did last night and I saved slightly)... & then I'll reconsider in the morning

Toronto @ Yankees
I know who I like in this matchup and I'm pretty sure I'll be taking NYY -1 -143 or NYY -1.5 +102. Yankees have yet to win a 1-run game, so the value in taking the Yankees has been in taking the RL....

Mussina has been solid this season. A WHIP of under 1 in his last 3 and under a 3 ERA, it seems to make sense to take the Yankees against the lefty Chacin. He is 4-0 and that to me is impressive with his 5+ ERA... Yankees are batting over .300 against lefties and had a good day at the dish yesterday... May carry over and they could deliver Chacin his first loss.

Games I won't be touching unless I get strong reason too....

Philly and Pittsburgh --- 2 bad teams, coin flipper

Seattle and Baltimore ---hit two games on the series and both team are pretty inconsistent. Couldn't tell you how this Sunday game is going to play out.

Boston and Tampa--- Would like Boston but not at that price. Schilling has been sick, but less good the last 3 (still very good)-- paying the price on the road in a rubber match doesn't sound like an exciting bet. If anything maybe, Tampa +1.5 +105 for 1 unit.

Considerations for discussion and the morning...
Houston/Nati Over 9 or 9.5

Cubs/Milwaukee Over -- especially if it is like 8 or 8.5

NY METS--- streaking right now?

Cleveland? ...

Picks will be finalized in the morning...

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